I still have a throbbing headache from the last sparring. I got caught with a clean right hook. This got me thinking about the career paths of boxing, Muay Thai, and MMA athletes. It seems like the risk-to-reward ratio is pretty high!
You see the greats like Manny Pacquiao, Rodtang, GSP—and one would think it’s a badass career with so much upside. But if you look behind the curtain, there are millions of boxers who wanted Pacman’s success but didn’t make it due to career-ending injuries, defeats, and so on. I bet there are plenty of Thai kids who trained Muay Thai since they were four but never became as famous as Rodtang.
Survivorship bias is one of the lasting impressions I got from reading Nassim Taleb. Only the survivors live to tell the tale.
Manny Pacquiao is one of the tiny percentage of boxers who made it. Does that make boxing a good career path? Possibly not. The risks are too high. The boxers who suffered life-altering injuries don’t have the exposure or influence to tell people that boxing might not be an excellent career choice. The lights are very bright on Pacquiao—but the failures are left in the dark.
I now think of survivorship bias when I look at a career, sport, or anything. Okay, that person is successful—but what about the failures? Is the risk worth it?